Pac-12 bowl scenarios

2012-11-12T04:00:00Z 2012-12-02T18:21:47Z Pac-12 bowl scenariosBy CLIFF KIRKPATRICK, Corvallis Gazette-Times Albany Democrat Herald

There are two weeks of Pacific-12 Conference football to go with seven bowl-eligible teams. They are all jockeying for the best postseason spot.

Bowls have an order of selection now, but the USC rule is you can't take more than one team out of the order of the standings.

To make a move up or be the victim of a bump down is up to the administration and fans. OSU AD Bob De Carolis polled season ticket holders to see where they'll travel to see the team.

If the Beavers can show they travel well to sell tickets to the game, the better chance of being picked over say, a UCLA that doesn't travel well.

With that said and how things are shaping up around the conference, here's my predictions as to who will go where and why.

There are two assumptions you have to pick before we proceed. The Ducks either make the national championship game or not. For this exercise they do.

NCG: Oregon controls its destiny. The Ducks must remain undefeated with Stanford, OSU and the Pac-12 title game ahead. As of now it looks like they can.

If the Ducks lose in the Pac-12 title game, they'll be an at-large BCS pick with the South Division winner going to the Rose Bowl. Even if Stanford wins its way into the Rose Bowl from the North Division, the Ducks are an at-large BCS team.

Other BCS game: There are two mains options, Stanford or UCLA, with USC a long shot and will be out with a loss to Notre Dame or UCLA. If UCLA defeats USC and Stanford to reach 10-2, a 10-3 team after a Pac-12 title game loss will be attractive to fill out one of the three open BCS spots after the six major conference champions and Notre Dame.

If Stanford beats UCLA it will be 9-3. A tough schedule and recent history of success can get them picked. However, if the Cardinal isn't in the top 14 in the BCS standings, the Pac-12 might not have an eligible second team for the BCS. If that happens, all my picks get bumped down a spot. 

Alamo: I'm saying Stanford makes it in as a second BCS spot, so that means UCLA fills in here. If USC can beat UCLA on Saturday this is USC's spot. The only variable is the jumping. OSU won't jump USC because USC is USC.

However, if Beaver Nation can show it's going to travel to San Antonio there's a shot to leap UCLA. OSU beat UCLA head-to-head and coach Mike Riley has a history in San Antonio coaching there in the World League.

Holiday: If USC goes to the Alamo, there's no way the Holiday doesn't snatch up the Beavers. UCLA, Stanford and OSU are highly coveted by the organizers since those teams have never been to the bowl game. 

There will be some debate over UCLA or OSU, but Riley's history as a San Diego Chargers coach and the win over the Bruins will carry the pick. It may even work out for the Beavers if the pick is between OSU and USC.

Sun: UCLA or USC will be left for this bowl. The Sun would love USC because of name value and ratings, but will make due with a resurgent UCLA. It will depend on the ACC team to bring fans and the Bruins to bring the TV ratings.

Las Vegas: The Huskies finished the season strong and will be a good fit for Sin City. It's an easy trip by plane and it's Vegas. 

Kraft Fight HungerArizona and Arizona State will be left to choose from, that is if Arizona State becomes bowl eligible. The Sun Devils should against Washington State this week. So the winner of the Territorial Cup goes here. 

New Mexico: The loser of the ASU-Arizona game fills out the Pac-12 bowl allotment here.

Cliff Kirkpatrick covers Oregon State sports for the Gazette-Times. He can be reached at cliff.kirkpatrick@lee.net.

Copyright 2015 Albany Democrat Herald. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

(1) Comments

  1. BennysPAC
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    BennysPAC - November 12, 2012 9:05 am
    Or the ducks beat Stanford, Beavers beat ducks, ducks win Championship go to Rose, Beavers (9-2) would be Alamo or at large BCS with no other PAC12 team with less than 3 losses. Beavers are a good team, don't see why we should accept that as a sure loss...
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